Houston football is now set for one final regular-season matchup this season, as it takes on the Baylor Bears on Saturday, Nov. 29, at 11 a.m., inside McLane Stadium, in Waco, Texas.
After starting the season 7-1, the Cougars have now dropped two of their last three games, and they have not played as well in the month of November as the beginning of the year.
Fortunately for Houston, the Bears have lost four of their last five games, but Baylor is a much better team than their 5-6 record.
The Cougars will look to even the all-time series against Baylor with a win at 15 games a piece, and Houston opens up as 2.5-point underdogs with just a 41.9% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Limit Baylors’ passing attack
Baylors’ strong suit is the passing game, and they rank first in the Big 12 Conference in passing offense.
Senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson is one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country, and he has totaled a conference best 3,372 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.
The only downsides to Robertson’s game, is that he is inaccurate at times with 11 interceptions on the season, and he is not a typically a running quarterback.
Last Saturday’s matchup against TCU was a good preparation game for Houston, as the Horned Frogs and the Bears heavily rely on the passing game.
The Cougars were able to record three interceptions against junior quarterback Josh Hoover last week, and they will need to find similar success against the Bears in order to win this game.
Get chunk plays on early downs
Last week against TCU, the Cougars constantly found themselves in third-and-long situations, which led to seven punts.
UH also converted just four of their 17 third-down attempts, which kept the defense on the field consistently.
Facing a Baylor offense that averaged almost 32 points per game, the Cougars cannot afford to not sustain offensive drives.
Houston has thrived this season when they get a good amount of yardage on first and second down with the run game or short passes.
Senior running back Dean Connors and senior tight end Tanner Koziol can play a huge role in keeping the Cougars ahead of the chains, and they will be needed to shine in their final game in the red and white.
Rely on the run
Baylor’s run defense checks in at No. 15 in the conference, and they allow an average of 196 rushing yards per game.
Houston has the clear advantage in this area as they rank No. 6 in the Big 12 in rushing offense.
Connors will be a key in the game, as he has totaled 800 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground this season.
Weigman is Houston’s next leading rusher, and the Cougars have gotten the most out of his dual-threat ability this year.
The veteran quarterback has 136 carries for 523 yards and nine rushing touchdowns this season, and he is a threat to run in short-yardage situations and the red zone.
With Houston known for its run game, they will need to take advantage of the mismatch and have strong offensive line play in order to exploit Baylor’s weak run defense.
Take advantage of scoring opportunities
Facing a high-powered offense like Baylor, the Cougars will need to maximize every opportunity they have to score.
Houston lost by three points last week, because they failed to convert long drives into points.
Senior kicker Ethan Sanchez is usually a reliable kicker for Houston, but last week he missed both of his field goal attempts, including one towards the end of the game to potentially force overtime.
Houston also failed to score a touchdown on a fourth-and-goal at the one-yard line, as Weigman’s pass fell incomplete.
A good advantage for Houston is that they are a perfect 5-0 on the road this season, and they average 31 points per game this season when they play away.
Meanwhile, Baylor is one win away from bowl eligibility and must win against Houston to secure an automatic bid.
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