Mailbag: Houston opens NCAA tournament first weekend as No. 2 seed in Oklahoma City

With Selection Sunday behind, Houston men’s basketball’s NCAA tournament path has officially been set as the No. 2 seed in the South Region.

The Cougars are set to face No. 15 Idaho at approximately 9:10 p.m. on Thursday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, the first of two steps towards a chance to play back home in the second weekend. 

Senior staff writers Michael Carrara and Sean Paul answered fan questions ahead of Houston’s first-round matchup.

I think we all believe that Kingston is one and done, but what percent chance do you give Chris Cenac returning for 2026-27? -Affectionate-Reply35/Reddit 

Michael: At this stage in the season, I’d give freshman forward Chris Cenac a sub-40% chance of returning, considering he’s still a projected middle-first round draft pick across multiple boards, even as he has mostly hovered out of lottery range. 

It’s mostly based on how far he’s developed himself as a perimeter defender while averaging almost eight rebounds a game, for which coach Kelvin Sampson has acknowledged.

And while he’s only shot 35% from 3-point range as a stretch four, the past few outings have shown he can make key triples where they matter most. Not to mention, racking up six double-doubles in his young career, tying career highs on the boards twice, and showing one of his best singular stretches in grabbing three offensive rebounds in one possession against Iowa State on Feb. 16. 

All are valued greatly by a variety of draft scouts and insiders, and dependent on his tournament performances and what he provides towards Houston potentially accomplishing the dream, the only chances going up for Cenac are for him joining freshman guard Kingston Flemings as a one-and-done talent.

Understanding that coach Sampson doesn’t want to talk about the team potentially hosting the regions but is there a chance the team could lose focus by looking ahead? -Richard Alberigo/email 

Michael: It’s completely natural for anyone to think minutely of the implications and what lies ahead out of getting past a certain matchup, but typically, Sampson’s teams have illustrated and emphasized that the focus is what lies right in front of them, getting their scouting reports in and staying on top of the assignments heading into the matchup.

Understandably so, a challenge can be the implication of playing just a few miles out from campus in the second weekend at Toyota Center, if the Cougars were to make their way out of Oklahoma City.

But two accomplishments in the track record also bolster that the chances of losing focus by looking ahead are very minimal.

For one, Houston has made it to the second weekend six consecutive times under Sampson dating back to 2019, and it holds the chance to be able to go to its third in-state regional finals site in five seasons this time around.

Second, the Cougars had one of the toughest paths in being able to reach their seventh Final Four in program history, and being able to play just 200 miles down Interstate 10 at the Alamodome in front of regional home crowd support. 

Based on these feats, it’s safe to say that chances in this season’s tournament rotation losing focus are just as minimal as they’ve been in seasons past during this era.

What is Houston’s biggest vulnerability that could lead to an upset? -Matthew Prior/Instagram

Sean: If there’s one glaring weakness that can lead to an early exit for Houston, it comes down to the paint. Compared to last year, the team’s interior presence doesn’t have the same impact.

Last season, J’Wan Roberts was the safety valve of the team. When shots weren’t falling and the team desperately needed to end a drought, Roberts was the go-to guy, as he could bully almost everyone in the paint with his physical presence and footwork, rarely needing plays to be drawn up for him.

Roberts was also elite on the offensive glass, being able to create second-chance points and keep possessions for the team.

Cenac and junior forward Joseph Tugler have been the main paint options this season, and so far, it’s shown mixed results.

Offensively, while Tugler is capable around the rim, his game is less polished than Roberts in terms of working inside. And for Cenac, as a stretch-four, he doesn’t have the physical presence to consistently take on his man in the paint, with his game requiring another big man to help complement his skill set.

Defensively, the bigs need to stay out of foul trouble. If they rack up two or three fouls in the first half, the team will have to go small, which can limit their effectiveness in the paint.

Based on last year’s result in the tournament, what experiences, both positive and negative, do you think the team needs to learn from to get to this year’s mountain top in the tournament and finish the story? -Chris Paul/Facebook

Sean: For positives, the Cougars must stick with their identity. Even though there were some offensive hiccups this season, under Sampson, defense is this team’s identity and superpower. With it they were able to dictate tempo, disrupt offensive rhythms and turn games into dogfights.

Sometimes, when the offense isn’t clicking, you gotta make the game uncomfortable for the opponent and that’s what Houston does best. It shouldn’t get baited into playing a style that isn’t its own.

But for negatives that need fixing, the Cougars must find a way to combat long scoring droughts. Including last season, there have been too many instances where the team goes three or four minutes without scoring, which allows their opponent to either extend the lead or catch up to close the gap. 

Against elite teams, especially in March, a major scoring drought is something no one can afford. One bad stretch could cost you your season.

What adjustments did the team make between the regular season and the Big 12 Tournament?-Klung Cooghoff/Instagram

Sean: To be honest, there haven’t been any major adjustments the team has made in between. Other than senior guard Milos Uzan and Flemings sharing ball duties at the top two spots and Sampson leaning more towards his bench players as the season has progressed, Houston has stuck with the same principles that have helped it remain a perennial national championship contender.

If I had to say one thing that has changed about this team, it’s that the Cougars are leaning more on their guards for creativity. Without Roberts as the go-to inside option to get them out of scoring jams, there has been more emphasis on the guard play to help create chances.

And while there have been ups and downs, when Uzan, Flemings and redshirt senior guard Emanuel Sharp are all on the same page, this trio gives tough battles nonetheless for anyone on the perimeter.

Do the players actually go to class? -Joshua Lopez/Instagram

Michael: If there’s one thing Sampson always stays on top of, it’s making sure that every single returning member of his program gets their degrees.

That was especially proven from when the program posted a department-leading 100% graduation success rate towards UH Athletics’ 82% overall rate among student athletes, in the official report released on Nov. 21, 2025. 

And yes, you can count on Sampson’s players in dedicating their time to academics, whether attending in-person or asynchronous online classes. Our Editor in Chief, Camryn Alberigo, can also attest to that, as she took a sociology class with Houston’s three departing senior guards in Uzan, Sharp and Ramon Walker Jr.